Finding Winners Using Speed Ratings

When we look for the potential winner of a race using speed ratings, we basically want the horse with the highest figure in its previous form under similar conditions.  What we are looking for when trying to distinguish between the best horses in a race is a clear advantage in its expected performance. How clear an advantage will depend on the situation. If all other factors are close to equal, I personally look for a rating 2 or more clear of the closest rival. If a horse has a strong draw advantage with a jockey and trainer well ahead in their course stats I would even consider a horse that was a point or so behind the highest rated horse.

How do we determine expected performance? The two main factors are form and fitness. Looking at a horse’s past performance, what range of speed figures has it achieved under similar conditions (course, distance, going etc). Now look at the horse’s most recent speed figures, what do they tell you about its current condition or how it will handle the weight it is carrying?

There are numerous other factors that can influence how we expect a horse to perform, how we weigh these factors is invariably what makes us successful.



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